View more on these topics

UK will avoid a full-scale recession, say lenders

The Intermediary Mortgage Lenders’ Association’s latest member survey reveals that lenders believe the UK will avoid a full-scale recession.

The majority of lenders say the economy will either continue to achieve positive growth every quarter or there will be a maximum of one quarter of falling GDP.

44 per cent of respondents think the UK may see two quarters of negative growth, but none of them expects a full-blown recession over a sustained period of time.

Intermediaries agree that the mortgage market is becoming less positive, with almost eight in ten saying conditions are getting worse, although two in ten say they are unchanged.

The South East’s brokers were markedly more positive about the outlook than those in other parts of the country. Around 22 per cent said conditions remain unchanged, compared with only 16 per cent in other regions.

IMLA executive director Peter Williams says: “Times are tough in the mortgage market, but key participants in industry remain confident that we can steer clear of an all-out recession. There are also pockets of greater optimism – surprisingly enough, in the South East, for example.”

IMLA says its members believe house prices will fall by an average of 2.8 per cent over the coming year, and as house prices fall and consumers’ finances come under greater pressure, the majority of lenders anticipate that arrears and possessions will rise slightly.

Among intermediaries, 47 per cent expect house prices to decline, but a surprisingly large proportion – 43 per cent – anticipate stable prices while just over 3 per cent think prices will rise

The majority of respondents expect Bank of England Base Rate to be 4.75 per cent by year end, although one thought it would be as low as 4.25 per cent. They also expect the spread between Base and Libor to contract to around 30 bp by end 2008 – the lowest it has been for some months.


McFall: Why buy a with-profits policy?

Treasury Select Committee chairman John McFall has questioned why anyone would buy a with-profits policy when shareholders can “raid” the inherited estates created from the funds at any time.

IHT: What were you doing in 2009?

One of the best sources of new business is your existing clients and, if they are estate planning clients, regular reviews are needed because people’s inheritance tax (IHT) problems tend to only get worse. Now, not a lot of things remain at the same rate as in 2009. If we turn the clock back, it […]


News and expert analysis straight to your inbox

Sign up


    Leave a comment


    Why register with Money Marketing ?

    Providing trusted insight for professional advisers.  Since 1985 Money Marketing has helped promote and analyse the financial adviser community in the UK and continues to be the trusted industry brand for independent insight and advice.

    News & analysis delivered directly to your inbox
    Register today to receive our range of news alerts including daily and weekly briefings

    Money Marketing Events
    Be the first to hear about our industry leading conferences, awards, roundtables and more.

    Research and insight
    Take part in and see the results of Money Marketing's flagship investigations into industry trends.

    Have your say
    Only registered users can post comments. As the voice of the adviser community, our content generates robust debate. Sign up today and make your voice heard.

    Register now

    Having problems?

    Contact us on +44 (0)20 7292 3712

    Lines are open Monday to Friday 9:00am -5.00pm