The next bull market is beginning to emerge in some parts of the globe, according to Threadneedle and Neptune UK and US equity managers.
Speaking at the Fund Strategy Investment Summit in Kitzbühel, Austria last week, Threadneedle UK fund manager Simon Brazier said efforts to deleverage balance sheets, more focus on investment by the West and moves towards greater consumption in the East have buoyed markets.
He said: “I do perceive that we are at the beginnings of a new structural bull market. It probably started two or three years ago as equities have already re-rated about 20 per cent.
“As global economics get more rebalanced, equities could perform quite well – particularly when I look at other asset classes you can invest in.”
Neptune US Opportunities fund manager Felix Wintle also argued that US equities have entered their first bull market in more than 10 years on the back of a falling reliance on oil imports, recovery in the manufacturing and housing sectors and moves from bonds to equities by investors.
He said: “If you buy a 10-year Treasury, you get a 1.9 per cent yield – which is effectively locking-in a negative return. This move [back to equities] will take a bit longer as the real wall of money will come when retail investors recognise they are losing money in their bond portfolios. That will start in about two years when the equity market will be higher.”
However, Brazier added it is unlikely the next bull market will mirror the “wonderful period” of the 1980s and 1990s, when the market went down only two years out of 20. He said gains on this scale were “completely anomalous”.