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Think tank says downturn will last until 2012

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research says UK Q2 2010 GDP grew by 0.9 per cent as the economy continues in a depressed state.

According to the think-tank, GDP grew by less than the estimated 1.1 per cent figures released by the Office of National Statistics last week.

Although it says the UK grew in the second quarter of the year, it says the depression will last for the next two years as GDP growth softens over the coming months as the effects of fiscal consolidation take hold.

NIESR says: “We interpret the term ‘recession’ to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while ‘depression’ is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.

“Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time. We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2012.”

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