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State pension triple lock costs £6bn a year


The Government’s plan to protect the value of the state pension is costing £6bn a year, with warnings the costs could spiral further.

The Financial Times reports a warning from the Government Actuary’s Department was published last week, but deleted a day later, with officials telling journalists it had been published “in error”.

The study represented a stark warning on the cost of plans to upgrade state pensions by the highest of three rates – average earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent.

According to the FT, the government acutuaries warn that since 2010, pensioners’ income was £10 a week higher than if it had been upgraded by earnings alone.

The policy is expected to add 9 per cent to total benefit spending by 2040 and 23 per cent by 2070. This could increase to 11 per cent in a scenario of low inflation and low income growth by 2040, and 41 per cent by 2070.

In an extreme “Japan deflationary” scenario, the triple lock could cost as much as 238 per cent more than an equivalent earnings-linked programme by 2070.

The report comes just over a month before the Chancellor is due to present the results of the latest spending review, alongside the Autumn Statement on 25 November.

The £6bn estimate marks a steep increase on previous estimates, with the Office for Budget Responsibility reporting in June that it expected the programme to cost £2.9bn in 2014/15.

The value of the programme, which David Cameron has guaranteed until at least 2020, has repeatedly come under fire, with Tory MP Liam Fox admitting the triple Lock is “difficult to justify” .



OBR hikes pensions triple lock cost estimate by £2.4bn

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast cost of the triple lock on the state pension is over seven times higher than its original forecast. In its welfare trends report, published today, it says the protection – which uprates pension payments based on the highest of CPI inflation, earnings or 2.5 per cent – is expected […]


Senior Tory MP: State pension triple-lock ‘difficult to justify’

Senior Tory backbencher and former defence secretary Liam Fox has said the triple lock on the state pension is “difficult to explain” to young families. In an interview with the Spectator, Fox questions his party’s spending commitments and warns the state pension promise will “come back as a very big cost, an unexpectedly large cost”. […]

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Is the state pension triple-lock really affordable?

Uniform political support for a triple-lock on state pensions does not reflect a flawed policy that could cost the Exchequer £15bn a year, according to experts. All of the major parties backed the triple-lock in the build up to the election and the policy is therefore likely to continue following the Conservatives’ victory last week. […]


Cameron pledges to keep state pension triple lock until 2020

Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to keep the triple lock on state pensions until 2020 if he is re-elected in 2015. The triple lock, which was part of the last Liberal Democrat manifesto and introduced in 2010, guarantees pension rises in line with inflation, earnings or 2.5 per cent, whichever is highest. The Liberal […]

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There are 2 comments at the moment, we would love to hear your opinion too.

  1. Does it though? The problem with this article (and probably the report on which it is based) is that it doesn’t detail whether the figure mentioned is the gross cost, i.e. the pure additional amount paid out due to State Pension going up by 2.5% rather than some much lower actual inflation or earnings figure, or the net cost.
    I believe the net cost will be somewhat lower, as some of this increase will see additional 20% or even 40% tax payable on other pension income as more of this falls to be taxed, or Pension Credit costs will reduce for poorer pensioners who see their State pension increasing faster than the MIG limit.

  2. Andy Robertson-Fox 14th October 2015 at 11:59 am

    And despite the predictıons of a £6 billion cost, of which the government has no doubt taken into account in its long term economic plan, it still can’t (or won’t) afford the £580million required to index link the State Retirement pension to just 4% of all pensioners and thereby achieve the justice and fairness of world wide parity.

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