Ami admits this is a “slight thaw” on the 45 per cent it predicted at the start of the year. It also predicts that gross lending will be around £20bn for 2009, another improvement on its previous prediction of negative gross lending by the end of the year.
Although it has eased up on some of its more downbeat predictions from January, the association still says there is a long way to go for the mortgage market to return to anything like it once was.
Ami’s report says: “There is little doubt in our minds the originate and distribute lending model is essentially over as a major force in the British mortgage market. There will only be room for a limited number of players and some of the products where the specialist lenders were traditionally strong simply won’t return in any size in the near future.
“Mortgage intermediaries will find most of their volume coming from the big balance sheet lenders and principally in prime sectors.
“The notion that Britons have a right to a mortgage and home ownership regardless of their ability to pay is simply not sustainable; economic funding is just not available.”