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NIESR: UK recession is over

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The National Institute for Economic & Social Research has claimed the UK is out of recession, barring a downturn in output.

In its latest monthly estimate of GDP, the think tank claimed GDP grew by 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in September, following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in August.

“This is the most robust rate of growth since the three months to July 2010. However, the strength of the figure for the three months to September is largely an artefact of special events,” reports NIESR. “Economic growth is expected to be at a significantly slower pace in the coming quarters.”

However, if the effects of special events are stripped out underlying growth is closer to 0.2-0.3 per cent per quarter, it adds.

Recession is judged by NIESR when output is receding or falling, while depression is when growth remains depressed below a previous peak.

“Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time,” it reports. “We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2014.”

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