Gregg McClymont: Many of freedoms’ true challenges yet to surface

Gregg-McClymont-NAPF-Conference-700.jpgI sat open-mouthed in the House of Commons four years ago as George Osborne announced the end of a national retirement system based on annuities.

Three years on from the law change, several trends are clear.

First, overall we remain in what I call ‘Income Drawdown’s Phoney War’: as long as the vast majority of retirees have DB pensions alongside their DC pots then the really knotty challenges of decumulation – investment, longevity, and inflation risk – are unrealised. Running out of money is not possible.

Second, this ‘phoney war’ is coming to an end sooner than I expected because of the sheer volume of DB to DC transfer assets. When people with little experience of the financial markets– such as those at Tata in South Wales – place their whole financial future in the hands of an income drawdown portfolio, then the risks have become greater as those billions flow into non-guaranteed solutions.

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Third, buying an annuity in your mid to late 60s on average is inefficient from a financial perspective. This reflects rising life expectancy, which contrary to some recent reports continues to rise.

Fourth, buying an annuity much later in retirement on average makes more financial sense because of rising mortality credits and the ‘smile’ consumption curve, meaning we spend less in our dotage than as new retirees.

Fifth, measuring retirement products by such financial efficiency is beside the point because individuals’ decisions at retirement are motivated by a much wider range of instincts, emotions and beliefs. What academics call the ‘annuity puzzle’ (why don’t people buy annuities) is not a puzzle at all. Nowhere around the world do individuals buy guaranteed products in large numbers unless compelled to do so.

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Sixth, the bequest motive is a powerful one and making pensions inheritable has transformed the way in which advisers and their clients approach drawdown. This ‘second act’ of Osborne’s reforms was as revolutionary as the first.

Seventh, as long as interest rates are low, designing sophisticated but not complex guaranteed products is an uphill task for asset managers and insurers.

Finally, no investment strategy can abolish the risk of running out of money. Only spending rules can avoid the crystallisation of investment losses. It’s why good financial advice is utterly critical in drawdown.

Gregg McClymont is head of retirement at Aberdeen Standard Investments

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Comments

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  1. A fair summary of what we already know although I’m not quite sure about the conclusions on annuities bought early and late.

    I think it would be interesting to review freedoms in terms of the various risk transfers that are occurring with pension freedoms and the actual size of those risks relative to the public’s perception (eg “well I don’t have to worry about running out by age 80, because I won’t live that long” in combination with “I did a DB to DC transfer because it would be nice to leave something to my kids”)

    Your bit on “What academics call the ‘annuity puzzle’ (why don’t people buy annuities) is not a puzzle at all. Nowhere around the world do individuals buy guaranteed products in large numbers unless compelled to do so” is similarly interesting. Many people won’t even buy car insurance unless compelled to do so. Indeed even if they don’t they are “let off” with a small penalty, maybe a £1000 fine, when the consequences of permanently injuring someone should be permanent financial ruin until death if they cannot pay the actual bill. So even with semi-compulsion they won’t do what should patently be good for them at a smallish price.

    When it comes to household cover, you would be astonished quite how many people take this risk on themselves.

    The problem with encouraging risk transfer for personal long term benefit is that it is the marshmallow paradox combined with a widespread inability for the public to understand and quantify risk all combined with the turbocharged overt comsumption zeitgeist.

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