The pair, who manage the Gartmore European select opportunities fund and Continental European fund say that we will only see an inflection point once US real estate asset prices found a support level, claiming that although there has been some form of stabilisation on housing and inventory levels the data remains fragile.
“In the meantime, markets will remain volatile and sector rotation between defensive sectors and cyclical sectors will be brutal. Although there has been ‘less bad news’ emerging lately, it may be premature to conclude that we have embarked upon a broader economic recovery”.
Guy and Rambourg say that although unemployment has rocketed and poor first quarter reporting figures are expected , the impact will not be as heavily felt as it has in the past.
“This time around, there is no more ‘surprise effect’ on the announcement of bad news unlike in 2008.”