The Bank of England will release a bulk of information today, dubbing the day Super Thursday, but what should we be looking out for?
Today will see the release of the latest interest rate decision; a press conference from Bank of England governor Mark Carney, minutes from the most recent Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the voting breakdown on the interest rate decision, the latest inflation report and a report from the Independent Evaluation Office.
Of all these pieces of information, which are the most important?
- The timing of any rate rise: While previously market watchers thought there would be no interest rate rise from the Bank of England before 2017, expectations have now been moved to summer next year, off the back of better-than-expected market data. Will today’s meeting notes give a hint at the timeline?
- Who says hike and who says stay: The notes on the breakdown of voting is key. While noone is expecting a rate hike today, more eyes are on the breakdown of the vote. The last meeting saw one lone dissenter voting for a hike among the nine members, but will Ian McCafferty continue to vote for a hike, and will others join him?
- Has the UK been hit by China downfalls? The latest inflation report is likely to look very different to the previous report in August. The drop in markets in the summer in China could well have hit UK markets. This is coupled with the continued fall in commodity prices, which will put downward pressure on inflation. Market watchers are on the lookout for any downgrade in UK growth expectations for the year.
- What Carney has to say on Brexit: While Carney gave a speech on the implications for the Bank of England of Britain exiting the European Union last month, he is likely to be grilled more on the topic today.
- How well has the Bank’s forecasting worked? The report from the Independent Evaluation Office, which was set up last year, will look at how well the Bank of England has forecasted growth and inflation. It is widely expected to be critical of some of the assertions the Bank has made.