‘Yes’ vote will cause a backlash
When it comes to Scottish independence, it is the perception of the man on the street in what may be the former UK that is important – not the facts. As UBS rightly pointed out recently, even a Government guarantee cannot stop people from queuing to get their money.
Be in no doubt: there will be money moved away from Scottish institutions after a Yes vote.
My clients are virtually all English and they are very happy to have their money managed or administered in British companies based in Scotland in a United Kingdom. But I have been surprised at the frequency with which Scottish independence has come up as an issue in review meetings. A significant proportion have said that the morning after a Yes vote, they will ask for their money to be moved south of the border. For many, it is not just about the safety of their cash or investments.
Without a vote of their own over the future of the Union, many clients feel it is the only tangible way of demonstrating their views about independence.
I am not trying to influence anyone’s vote (and I’m conscious that I’ve fallen into the trap of the negative campaigners) but please don’t be naive enough to think that there won’t be a backlash from ordinary investors in the UK after a Yes vote.