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CML’s 2014 gross lending forecast branded ‘pessimistic’

The Council of Mortgage Lenders’ gross lending forecast for 2014 has been branded “pessimistic” by experts, with suggestions that the market could advance by up to £15bn more than the trade body has predicted.

This week, the CML predicted that the market would grow by 15 per cent from an estimated £170bn in 2013 to £195bn next year and £206bn in 2015.

At the end of last year the trade body predicted gross lending would reach £156bn in 2013 and then fall back to £150bn next year.

But experts suggest the CML has been conservative in its forecast for 2014.

E.surv director Richard Sexton says: “Based on our projections, which are partly based on what lenders have shared with us, we could easily see lending going above that.

“I think we could reach £210bn because of growing consumer confidence and the wider economy getting back on track, which in turn makes people more confident to make those big financial decisions to move home.”

Legal & General Network director of housing and external affairs Stephen Smith says: “The figures from the CML are slightly more pessimistic and our expectations are that the market will move closer to £200bn despite the recent withdrawal of the Funding for Lending Scheme.”

Association of Mortgage Intermediaries chairman Pat Bunton says: “When you look at the consensus view – a market of around £200bn – that is a market size I think the AMI board feels comfortable with.”

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  1. GP Styles (GPS Economics) 13th December 2013 at 12:20 pm

    The current data is certainly consistent with £200bn plus gross lending assuming no economic shocks. However it is in all our interests to see steady growth in gross lending rather than something more exciting particularly if it is powered by a house price bubble in London and SE. The policy and interest rate outlook in 2015 and beyond is going to be challenging given the relatively high level of household debt in the UK and US.

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