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CML says 2010 gross lending to reach £150bn  

The Council of Mortgage Lenders predicts that the UK gross mortgage lending market will reach £150bn in 2010.

It says gross lending will total around £141bn this year with 810,000 transactions. But it says that will rise in 2010 with 850,000 transactions. The CML says net lending, which will reach £5bn this year, will rise to £15bn in 2010.

It has also cut its forecast for the number of repossessions this year from 75,000 to 48,000. The council already revised the forecast down to 65,000 in June. It says arrears will end the year at 195,000 down from previous forecast of 360,000, and will rise only modestly next year to 205,000. It also says there will be 53,000 repossessions in 2010.

CML Q3 2009 figures show that the number and proportion of mortgages in arrears both fell – 194,600 mortgages, 1.77 per cent of the total, were in arrears of 2.5 per cent (a CML measure roughly equivalent to three months of arrears). This compares with 204,200 cases,1.86 per cent of all mortgages, at the end of June 2009.
 
It also found that 11,700 properties were taken into possession in the third quarter, up slightly from 11,400 in the previous quarter, and 5 per cent higher than the number in the third quarter of 2008.

CML director general Michael Coogan says: “We are glad to have been wrong on our previous forecast for mortgage repossessions this year. Low interest rates, and lenders’ forbearance policies, have helped to cushion many households facing financial problems.

“Borrowers should take heart from the latest findings, as they reinforce the fact that lenders really do want to keep people in their homes – and are doing so.”

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  1. Mark Blackwell, MD of XIT2 12th November 2009 at 1:47 pm

    If the repossessions process has been genuinely well-managed over 2009 then this really is good news. As far back as February we were saying the CML’s 2009 repossession forecasts were at least 10,000 too high. The statistics were too pessimistic and it’s no surprise they have had to be revised down again. XIT2’s experience of the arrears and repossession markets suggested the stats didn’t reflect the lengths lenders were going to to explore workable options for addressing borrowers’ payment problems – even after obtaining court orders – right up to the point of possession. Possession is now the last resort and is only occurring when all other reasonable attempts to resolve a case of mortgage arrears have failed.

    But if lenders are just delaying the inevitable, we’re effectively sweeping the problem under the carpet until next year. And all the economic indicators suggest we’re in for a tough 2010, so we shouldn’t imagine we’re out of the woods yet.

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