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Business leaders predict Brexit hit to investment growth

The British Chambers of Commerce has warned that Brexit uncertainty will leave business investment growth at its lowest level in a decade this year.

The lobby group estimates a 1 per cent fall in investment this year, on the back of a similar fall last year.

Investment fell by 16.6 per cent in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009, the Times reports, but this would be the greatest fall since then due to delayed decisions by firms amid EU negotiations.

The Bank of England has previously estimated a 2 per cent increase in investment this year, but has since also cited Brexit uncertainty in revising that estimate to a 2.75 per cent fall.

The BCC warns that net trade will “make a negative contribution to GDP growth over the forecast period, reflecting the lack of clarity on the UK’s future trade arrangements, weaker global growth and continued trade tensions” – despite the fact exports are predicted to grow marginally.

These will be outstripped by import growth of 2 per cent, however.

BCC director general Adam Marshall says: “It is clear that political inaction has already had economic consequences, with many firms hitting the brakes on investment and recruitment decisions…Worse still, some companies have moved investment and growth plans as part of their contingency preparations. Some of this investment may never come back to the UK.”

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Comments

There are 7 comments at the moment, we would love to hear your opinion too.

  1. I would like to thank brexiters for the last two and a half years of political upheaval, angst and right wing madness they have (unintentionally) inspired. It’s all going very well isn’t it?
    And the best is yet to come 😉

  2. And no a scintilla of blame should be laid at the door of remainers Patrick? Really? You embarrass yourself yet again with another poorly argued soundbite but, in your defence, very few commentators from either side of the ‘debate’ take the time present a cogent case, preferring to make statements, light on detail but charged with moral indignation.

    • I’m not in the least embarrassed Chris. Why would I be? We wouldn’t have had all these issues without the leave vote. You just can’t argue with that as that would be embarrassing. Unless you are living in some alternative universe.

      • You mean we wouldn’t have such an easy target to blame without a Leave vote?
        https://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=2130
        Investment is down globally, not just in the UK. Don’t forget that car manufacturing is moving away from combustion engine power (UK Plants) to electric power too, so that certainly isn’t helping growth in the UK.
        Going back to your earlier comment, Right Wing originates from the French Revolution and means in support of the Monarchy. Do you mean Racists and other Murderous thugs, because unfortunately they’ve been around for a lot longer than 2016 and I doubt that all, if any, are in favour of the Monarchy.

        • Thanks for your comments, pension guy and for your first two words telling me what I mean, even though you don’t know what I mean. I am not referring to investments being down (and never mentioned that, even though they are, and car manufacturers are pulling out of the UK as well as millions of tax payers money being spent unnecessarily).
          If you haven’t noticed that the UK government is in crisis and the nation is divided and deluded then I don’t know where you have been over the last two and a half years and almost everybody, particularly leavers (ironically), it seems are fed up with the whole thing.
          Your comment about the use of the term right wing is pure pedantry and I will ignore it as such. Sorry

  3. And we wouldn’t have had a leave vote, and all the issues therein, if we hadn’t had a vote to join a very different free trade organisation in the 70’s. You can take it back to how the guiding aims behind the Treaty of Rome were created in the aftermath of WW2 which might not have happened if the WW1 Allies had not punished Germany so severely thus helping to create the fertile ground for the rise of fascism. Your point I believe was not ignore the reasons why the 2016 vote took place (which was largely but not totally due to the cavalier manner in which Cameron conducted his premiership) but to only look at the time since. My point is that, if the many of the loudest critics of the result had taken time to understand why Leave won and had been prepared to respect and work with it rather than do everything to undermine and overturn the decision, we would be far better placed as a country right now. Surely you cannot argue that a bad (in your opinion) choice has only been made unnecessarily worse.

    • Now you are talking Chris. Yes I was referring to the leave vote in isolation.

      My opinion is that it was nonsensical and that, if I can say this without being lambasted, a huge amount of leave voters did not understand what a leave vote would bring, rather relying of speculation and jingoistic ranting from the media and self interested politicians, as well as some voters just being xenophobic. That is not the same, in any way, as maintaining that all leave voters are thick and racist. That’s just the line that the media has fed the public whenever that point is made.
      You are absolutely right in that Cameron was extremely weak with his euro-sceptics and, basically, useless.

      You are completely right in that the situation has been made even worse by politicians, although I regard the leave MPs (Johnson, Gove, Davis, Francois, Rees Mogg, Redwood etc (and a few Labour MPs) as being idiotic, laughably nationalistic and never able to come up with a reasonable leave strategy themselves. All their positions have moved from getting an easy great deal, to no deal, to May’s deal, while remainers have been consistent in just wanting to remain with the status quo.

      It makes me so angry when leavers say the EU has changed so much over the years….. and the go on to say it will never change in the future. How is that a reasonable comment to make? It’s totally contradictory.

      We should stay in the EU and work to change it from within over the years. I am not so worried about the economy as about the totally backward idea of splitting friendly nations apart.

      I should have stick to a soundbite but I still think the first one was totally justified. I just felt your second comment deserved some more detail from me.

      You, possibly won’t see this as it’s a day late, however.

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