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Brexit trade deal could take a decade, ambassador warns

Britain’s ambassador to the EU has privately told the government a trade deal after Brexit might take a decade to complete, the BBC reports

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Sir Ivan Rogers warned that rejections from national Parliaments across the EU meant that a deal, which was unlikely to finish until the early to mid-2020s anyway, may still fail.

Rogers, who conducted EU negotiations for David Cameron, is said by the BBC to have warned ministers in October that the other 27 member states in the EU believed an agreement could take ten years and might not survive the process of ratification by each country.

The BBC understands that Rogers suggested to ministers a free trade deal was a more likely outcome than continued membership of the single market.

Number 10 said Rogers was discussing the position of other EU member states, not the Government’s opinion, which is still that a deal can be done in two years after Article 50 is invoked.

A spokesman told the BBC: “It is wrong to suggest this was advice from our ambassador to the EU. Like all ambassadors, part of his role is to report the views of others.”

Dominic Raab, a former minister and a Leave campaigner, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning: “It’s reasonable to set out the worst case scenario for a five to ten year period to iron out a trade deal. The key thing is whether we maintain barrier free trade in the meantime in which case frankly there’s no problem – we leave the EU in two years we complete the free trade agreement afterwards.”



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There are 7 comments at the moment, we would love to hear your opinion too.

  1. Yes Dominic, why listen to people who might know? Just tell these damn foreigners to get in line for Britain.

  2. Goods and services go back and forth with no barriers but when the crunch comes we will see the outcome of this madness. Of course they will want to sell us their cars so it will all be alright then.

  3. Sir Ivan Rogers – now he did a really good job on these negotiations for DC,didn’t he? I seemed to recall that Cameron was told not to ask for ‘x,y and z’ as there “was no chance of getting any agreement”. It is clear to me that Whitehall wants to sabotage the Brexit negotiations in any case so why not present the worse case scenario as absolute fact – after all didn’t both campaigns in the summer do exactly that! I perhaps foolishly hoped that, at least in the UK, we were going to move forward in a more adult fashion with the task ahead rather than chase headlines and soundbites.

  4. How long did it take the EU to negotiate a deal with Canada that almost came to nought? Why is it that these damn fool Brexiteers think it will be easy peasy just to deals with anyone they choose.

    Anyway no one has yet explained to me why we were told by these people that our worldwide trade was curtailed by being in the EU. I didn’t notice that Germany, France Italy and Belgium had any problems and they all export more than we do and Germany exports more to the Commonwealth than the UK. True all these countries and us trade more with the EU than with anywhere else and the numpties in Westminster are putting this at risk. What do they care? Their income isn’t determined by trade, They travel free (on the State) so don’t have to worry about exchange rates nor inflation as they have just voted themselves another pay rise.
    Meanwhile us mortals have seen Sterling depreciate against the US$ by -15.6%. The Japanese Yen by -20.2%. The Aus$ by -19.5% and that terrible basket case of a currency the € has seen Sterling depreciate against that by -13.5% (What does that tell you?) But don’t worry prices won’t rise that much and inflation won’t get out of hand (it is now 2.2% – an increase of 69% since 1st June when it was 1.3%). What planet are Davis, Fox, May and Johnson on?

  5. So we walk away in 2019 and then sort out a trade deal later.

    What basis do we trade on in between.

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