Legal & General sales and marketing director John Cupis told delegates at the Mortgage Business Expo in Manchester last week that he believes 75 per cent of business volume will be carried out by networks' appointed representatives after M-Day on October 31.
Cupis looked at “how things will land” for the industry's 36,000 intermediaries, 50 clubs and networks and 115 lenders.
Based on data from the Mortgage Finance Gazette, Cupis said he expects there to be 7,000 intermediaries belonging to directly-authorised firms, 7,000 appointed representatives of life companies, 11,000 brokers belonging to mortgage networks and 10,000 belonging to IFA networks.
He says the figures look reasonable, given that FSA numbers for direct authorisation are around 7,000.
He predicts that smaller IFAs will opt for the appointed representative route while bigger firms will apply for direct authorisation.
Cupis said IFAs deciding upon the appointed representative route will need to act now to secure a place with a network which has received a minded to authorise letter.
On the subject of whether mortgage clubs will survive, Cupis predicts that the number of clubs will decrease as intermediaries opt for bigger networks.
Cupis said it is impossible to tell whether intermediaries will be ready for regulation and able to trade after October 31. He suggested that some will choose to leave the industry as a result of regulation.