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Allianz points to decoupling on the horizon for BRICs

Allianz Global Investors BRIC stars fund manager Michael Konstantinov believes that BRIC countries are set to decouple from emerging economies.

Konstantinov says that the BRIC nations are currently in the midst of a fightback with the main themes like urbanisation and reduced reliance on exports remaining in place.

He also says that market sentiment has also been bolstered by strong sovereign and corporate balance sheets, government flexibility to fiscal policy and an ability to keep commodity prices low.

He says:“While everyone is still talking about a global recession, most of the slowdown comes from developed economies such as the US, Japan and Europe, which are all expected to deliver negative GDP growth in 2009. In contrast in BRIC markets, we have started to see some positive news and Allianz Global Investors believes a GDP growth of 8 per cent in China is achievable this year.

“If we therefore look at global GDP as an indicator, the BRIC markets represent one of the few regions in the world where the figure is growing. This suggests that the recession is primarily a developed world phenomenon and provides further evidence to support the decoupling theory, which many dismissed too soon.”

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