UK avoids double-dip recession
Share
The UK has avoided a double-dip recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
The economic think tank estimates that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the first three months of the year after a similar figure for the three months ending in February.
The data reflects a dip in output in January mainly due to heavy snowfall disrupting activity.
But NIESR says: “Given this dip in January and the fact that the growth rate was achieved despite the rise in the VAT rate, the underlying rate of growth of the economy is probably greater than 0.4 per cent. We now estimate that output is 1.1 per cent higher than at the end of the recession which we currently place in September 2009.”
The think tank says output remains 5.4 per cent lower than it was in early 2008 and the growth rate is still lower than the trend rate of growth of potential output.
But it says: “Unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time. We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2012.”
The official estimate of first quarter gross domestic product will be published on April 23 by the Office for National Statistics.
If you enjoyed this article, sign up here to receive daily email updates from Money Marketing and Follow @_moneymarketing
Readers' comments (2)
John lacy | 9 Apr 2010 10:25 am
It's a bit early to say we've avoided a double dip recession. I don't think that you can safely contemplate that until at least the end of 2010 as for the moment any statistics coming out are either estimates or the out-put of a desperate administration with a history of lies and deceit. Happy days!!
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this comment
How funny!! | 9 Apr 2010 10:38 am
Well said, John!!
Obv the NIESR didn't study the graph of a d/dipper very well - first shoots of recovery and we're back into a bull-run (apparently) ... or the reality check is likely to be ... 'maybe not'!!
Let's see what 2010-11 brings ... probably not too much economically!!
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this comment