Wrap to take 60 percent of business
Ferguson believes there will be at least 10 wrap entrants over that period, including five or more insurers, at least three independent providers and several foreign companies although he warns that not all of them will survive.
He says: "Platforms are taking an increasing share of the market and it seems logical that legacy products that are still transacted on paper, such as insurance bonds, will evolve to fit the technology. We are going through a phase of proliferation, with Macquarie coming into the independent space and a number of life companies on their way but there may also be consolidation."
Threesixty partner Phil Young says: "I think it is a very realistic prediction but I also think it is difficult for new entrants to differentiate themselves. Many use the same technology companies so the functionality is similar. They will have to choose whether to compete on price, on value-added services like business transformation consultancy or decide to be a niche player."Mortgage market share2007 2006 Gross Estimated
lending market share1 (1) HBOS £73.1bn 20.1 percent2 (2) Abbey £35.6bn 9.8 percent3 (5) Nationwide £33.9bn 9.3 percent4 (3) Northern Rock £29.5bn 8.1 percent5 (4) Lloyds TSB £29.4bn 8.1 percent6 (7) Barclays £23bn 6.3 percent7 (6) Royal Bank of Scotland £22.6bn 6.2 percent8 (11) Bradford & Bingley £14bn 3.9 percent9 (8) Alliance & Leicester £13bn 3.6 percent10 (9) HSBC £10.1bn 2.8 percent11 (10) GMAC-RFC £9.4bn 2.6 percent12 (12) Bristol & West £8bn 2.2 percent13 (13) Britannia BS £6.2bn 1.7 percent14 (15) GE Money Home Lending £5.3bn 1.5 percent15 (17) Yorkshire BS £4.7bn 1.3 percent16 (21) Coventry BS £4.2bn 1.2 percent17 (14) Clydesdale & Yorkshire Bank £4.1bn 1.1 percent17 (18) Paragon Mortgages £4.1bn 1.1 percent19 (19) Standard Life Bank £3.7bn 1 percent20 (16) Lehman Bros £3.6bn 1 percent
Source: Thedata/Council of Mortgage Lenders